Last week, we had another of Mike Chamernik’s “Question of the Week” series, the response was great, and Mike is back again with his next question.
Question of the Week
by Mike Chamernik
One of the most common debates in sports is about the hot hand. Is an athlete more likely to continue being successful after a series of successes? Or is the idea a cognitive bias? There have even been books written about the phenomenon.
I think it exists. I understand all the objective evidence that possibly points otherwise, but I feel that when someone’s in the zone, they get that extra confidence boost and adrenaline surge that spurs them on for a little longer. It’s more than random chance or noise in the data.
What are some of the best “hot hand” moments you’ve seen from an athlete? And, when have you had the hot hand?
My most recent example is Stephen Curry in the Gold Medal Game in the Olympics this summer. Yes, he’s the greatest shooter of all time, but in that moment, with those stakes, with that shot selection, it was something more.
As for myself, I still remember playing twenty-one (the basketball game) at my college rec center way back in June 2009. I’ve always been just OK at hoops, but that night I couldn’t miss a three pointer. I was letting it fly and it was splashing. Even my opponents were getting annoyed.
And if you’re a more analytical person: Why do you think the hot hand doesn’t exist?
Thanks, Mike — great question again.
Can’t wait to hear the readers’ responses! OK guys…fire away!
Joe Juneau – 98 Stanley Cup playoffs
Doug Williams – Super Bowl XXII, second quarter
Howie Kendrick, second half of October 2019 although he was always a good hitter
Max Scherzer, June 2019 (again, always good but that was a season saving stretch)
Stephen Strasburg in the postseason, generally
Me, 2021 District Broomball w
Actually, it was Winter 2022 District Broomball season. I suddenly became a goal a game player. Bad goalies? The new “stickier” broomball shoes? I don’t think I have scored that many goals in almost three years since.
I’m intrigued with broomball
Hockey for people who can’t skate more or less. Our league is 15 years old.
It’s most popular in Minnesota, but there also organized leagues in DC, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Brooklyn, Upstate NY, probably New England. Hershey, PA. used to have a league.
A lot of our league are Miami University alums – I think Ohio University has it too.
I first played it at Penn State in pick up games.
Howie Kendrick is a GREAT answer. He was a part-time player for several years. And then he became the scariest hitter on earth.
He could always hit, but health sometimes proved be a problem. Batted .344 in 2019 playing all over through pain/age.
Then he hit the biggest home run in DC history.
Then he did surpassed it two weeks later.
The entire 1985 Villanova Wildcats basketball team versus Georgetown comes to mind almost immediately.
Shooting 78% from the field is crazy
That game was destined to happen, because I predicted them winning the ’85 championship…in December of 1982.
link
During that Villanova/Kentucky game, I told my brother that when Ed Pinckney was a senior, they were going to win the title. He laughed at me, but I had the last laugh.
As for my hottest hand, it was the night the Broncos were getting crushed by the 49ers in Super Bowl 24. My brother and I were playing pickup basketball and I couldn’t miss. At one point I just barely crossed the mid-court line on a fast break. I stopped and put up a three point shot. My friend yelled “What the &@#$ was that?” I turned around while the ball was in the air and said “That was a three-pointer” as I heard it go through the net.
I don’t believe in analytics. I believe in Jerry Reed who sang “When You’re Hot You’re Hot, When You’re Not You’re Not.”
Me, Dodgers Adult Baseball Camp, 2020. I got a hit the first 11 times I batted. Cooled off, but hit .682 for the week. I won Camper of the Year at age 66.
The first thing that came to my mind was Jeremy Lin’s “Linsanity” streak for the New York Knicks during the 2011-12 NBA season. I’m not even a Knicks fan, but it was hard not get swept up in the excitement.
Among teams that I root for, there are four in baseball that come to mind: 1) Fernando Valenzuela’s rookie season for the Dodgers in 1981 (particularly his 8-0 start to the season with a 0.50 ERA), which spawned “Fernandomania,” 2) seven years later, Orel Hershiser’s 59-inning scoreless streak to conclude the 1988 regular season for the Dodgers before continuing his unhittable streak into the postseason and winning the NLCS and World Series MVP awards on the way to the title, 3) the 2007 Colorado Rockies, collectively, winning 21 of 22 games to move from off-the-radar in the playoff hunt to the World Series (before getting crushed, 4-0, by the Red Sox), and 4) Freddie Freeman, coming off of his ankle injury, blasting home runs in four straight World Series games against the Yankees this October, including the Game 1 grand slam in extra innings that set the tone for the whole series.
Rocktober! That was a wild run
Don Mattingly in 1987. Home runs in eight consecutive games, and six grand slams during the season.
Looks like my answer got caught up in moderation. Hey, Uni Watch staff, a little help here?
Free at last!
Hallelujah!
Joe Montana’s 1989 postseason is my vote. As good as he was in SB XXIV, he was even better in the NFC Championship vs. the Rams.
There’s a handful or so of Cup drivers with 4 consecutive wins… but none was more improbable than Harry Gant’s string of W’s in ‘91.
Jeremy Lin. For half of one season, he was Bob Cousy.
He was already having a historic run — and then the game winner in Toronto happened. Absolutely electric
Lin-sanity!
Easy one for me, and its a whole team… Leicester City!!! Absolutely ridiculous to think of my team being in a Premier League title race in 2015/16, but week after week, going into tough games and just knowing they were going to win. This “hot hand” effect is the only way to explain it.
Some players went on to prove themselves World class (Vardy, Mahrez, Kante) but so many other players got caught up in it and performed so far above their normal level.
Patrick Roy, Montreal Canadiens Playoff Run in 1993. 11 straight playoff wins en route to the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy.
Eric Thames during his 2017 season with the Brewers was one hell of a run! Helped the team make their return to the playoffs after 6 years of missing it.
1980 Winter Olympic Games, Lake Placid, NY: Jim Craig was seen as the backup goalie for Team USA, and head coach Herb Brooks gave him a chance that even those mostly in the know didn’t think was a wise move. Then again, Brooks never did anything by the book.
And in less than two weeks, over 12 days and seven games, Jim Craig became an American hero and the face of the “Miracle on Ice.” I can watch the USA’s win over the Soviets over and over and still be amazed at how Craig, having earned a 4-3 lead, kept making save after save after save. He saved 36 of 39 shots that Friday night, and his storyaboutlosing his mom inspired a nation, as did Al Michaels: “Do you believe in miracles? Yes!”
Also in Lake Placid, American speedskater Eric Heiden was 5-for-5 in his gold medals haul earned byvwinning sprints and endurance
(I hate it when it saves before I could clean up my typos!)
One more for Team USA, Carl Lewis’s four-gold medal haul in the 1984 Los Angeles summer games, winning the long jump, 100 and 200 sprints and anchoring the USA’s 4×100 relay. All theee responded to the pressure with phenomenal feats on sports’ biggest stage.
Glenn “Chico” Resch, Islanders, 1975 playoff run
TJ Oshie 4 for 6 in the shootout to beat Russia and give the US team a bye in the 2014 Olympics.
Love the question. Just endorsing some of the earlier picks:
Villanova
Lin
Roy
Resch
What about cold hands? Maybe we can bounce that around someday. But if you exclude yips (Knoblauch; Sax) single-game aberrations (Spieth), bad skills (Shaq’s free throws) or mental lapses (Chris Webber; Jim Marshall), I propose Jon Kitna. Six consecutive games with a fumble. Now THOSE are cold hands.